Yu Hongtao, Chairman of Carnet, Shared Two Hot Topics in the Battery Industry

Power lithium battery industry has a topic that everyone can say clearly and that no one can say clearly. What is clear is the battery material system. The topics that are not clear are soft bags, cylinders and square shells. Which type of battery is better?

â–² Yu Hongtao, chairman of carnet new energy

Recently, Yu Hongtao, chairman of carnet new energy, shared two hot topics in the battery industry with the theme of "development trend of power battery technology".

Yu Hongtao said that what is clear is the battery material system. At present, the industry clearly knows that there are three material systems: lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate, and has a very thorough understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of the three systems.

Under the guidance of the state linking battery energy density with subsidies and supporting high specific energy batteries, vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers are enthusiastically pursuing higher specific energy battery products. From the perspective of specific energy, the specific energy of ternary is the highest, followed by lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate.

Therefore, Sanyuan is becoming more and more popular in China. In 2015, the market share of Sanyuan was very small, but the subsequent consumption of Sanyuan continued to increase, and the market share continued to expand, followed by a sharp increase in the cost of power battery. From the perspective of cost, if the ternary cost is 100, then lithium iron phosphate is about 90 and lithium manganate is only 70.

According to the statistics of last year, the ternary price in 2018 increased four times compared with that in 2015. A very cruel fact is that even though Chinese enterprises accounted for seven of the top 10 battery manufacturers in the world in terms of shipments last year, the profits realized by China's entire battery industry last year may not be as much as a cobalt mining enterprise in Switzerland.

Once subsidies disappear, the whole industry may be reshuffled, and new energy vehicles may also be redefined.

Another unclear topic is the soft package, cylinder and square shell. Which type of battery is better? At present, the industry has not reached a consensus on this issue. It can be predicted that this will be a continuous topic in the future.

Although the three types of batteries have their own characteristics and advantages and disadvantages, in general, when it comes to high energy density and passenger cars, the amount of soft bags and square shells will be more, and when it comes to cost, columns may be more favored.

It should be emphasized that the battery is a multi-dimensional product. Now many people only focus on the specific energy when evaluating the technical level of the battery, but in fact, the specific energy is not the main standard to measure the battery.

The specific energy depends on the material. As long as the material is used to the extreme, it is not a problem for the battery to achieve 300wh / kg and 310 WH / kg with 811 material and high-end diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film. However, battery products with specific energy of 300wh / kg and cycle life of only one week have no market significance.

What the market needs is battery products with safety, cycle performance, high temperature performance and low temperature performance in addition to specific energy. Focusing only on one dimension is not only unscientific, but also very dangerous.

It should be recognized that the overall improvement of batteries is a long process. Similarly, only by considering the charge and discharge performance, service life, cost, quality, recyclability, industrial chain and continuous improvement ability of battery products produced by battery enterprises, can we determine whether battery enterprises really have competitiveness and what kind of competitiveness they have.

In fact, the primary factor to ensure the market competitiveness of enterprises is the safety of batteries. In order to ensure the safety of batteries, enterprises need to carry out a large number of destructive experiments, such as acupuncture, overcharge, drop test and so on.

The Acupuncture Experiment simulates the situation that the battery is penetrated by sharp objects when the vehicle collides. In this case, the battery without fire explosion and internal short circuit is safe. The overcharge test will break the battery charging standard of 4 V / 5 v. under this condition, the safety can be confirmed only if the battery does not cause fire or explosion through BMS control. The drop test simulates the impact of the battery when the vehicle collides. In this case, the battery product without abnormal battery pack can be confirmed to be safe.

The second is the specific energy. At present, there is little difference in the power energy provided by most battery manufacturers, and the ways to realize it are also similar, that is, in the same nature, the high specific energy is realized by chemical materials. The key to making enterprises stand out is to ensure industrialized production under the condition of ensuring the improvement of battery specific energy.

Then comes the service life, which involves another practical problem in the battery industry - there is a gap between the real use data and the experimental data. That is, the cycle life of 2000, 2500 or 2800 is mostly the measured data in the constant temperature laboratory. When it is finally put into use on the vehicle, it needs to face the real use scenarios of different temperatures. In fact, no battery manufacturer has made it clear how much power battery life can reach under various cycle experiments.

Users' usage habits will also affect the service life of the battery. Generally, the actual performance of the power battery that is used only once every six months is inferior to the power battery used every day, and even the use loss may be more serious, which also has a great impact on the battery life.

The fourth is the cost, which is also where the battery industry has been complaining in recent years. Battery enterprises face three pressures on cost:

First, the national subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has been continuously adjusted. Usually, the development of a new car takes 36 months and 54 months, but the new energy vehicle has only a half year development cycle at most, followed by a half year sales cycle, and then new products must be developed.

Second, the cost of subsidies has been greatly reduced. According to comprehensive statistical data, the average subsidy in 2015 was about 2.4 yuan / wh, about 2.1 yuan / wh in 2016, about 1.7 yuan / wh in 2017 and only 1.35-1.45 yuan / wh in 2018. The significant reduction of average subsidies also increases the cost pressure of battery enterprises.

Third, it has not established a solid strategic cooperation with customers. Usually, vehicle manufacturers and suppliers establish strategic cooperation, and suppliers also spend a lot of time investigating the strength of partners. However, at this stage, the normal supply chain relationship of the automobile industry has not been established between the vehicle factory and the battery factory. The frequency of changing partners between the two sides is very high, and most of them appear in the form of single project cooperation. After the completion of the same project, there will be great variables whether the two sides will continue to cooperate or not.

However, from the perspective of battery enterprises, clarifying the future industrial and capacity planning and performance requirements of the vehicle factory, cooperating with the vehicle factory to develop and provide standard solutions for supporting products, and jointly facing and working together to solve the pain points of battery replacement of electric vehicles and low battery preservation rate in the future will be the direction expected by battery enterprises.

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